2018 Irad census

The 2018 Irad census was a population census carried out in October and November 2018 by the ISEZ Statistical Office under the Democratic Party of Irad (DPI) administration of the Irad Special Economic Zone (ISEZ). Its results, published by the Department of Public Information in 2019, gave Irad a population of 4,626,000. Enumerators counted the population of the ISEZ door to door, but the population of the Autonomous Tribal Regions (ATR) was estimated from administrative data, without a count on the ground.^[1] Independent demographers estimate the ATR population at 3.5 to 4 million, against the official 2.0 million, and Irad's total population at about 6.2 million. The census is the source of most official statistics on Irad, and its treatment of the tribal regions is one of the main points of dispute between the DPI and the Iradi Freedom Society (IAC).^[2][3]

Background

The previous count was the Soviet census of 1989, which recorded 4,257,000 people in the Iradi Soviet Socialist Republic. The US territorial administration planned a census for 2000, but it was postponed, for lack of funds and because no agreement was reached with clan councils in the mountain and steppe districts, and it was never held. Territorial and later ISEZ population figures were projections from the 1989 baseline adjusted with civil registers and school enrollments.^[2] Governor Erlan Toktarov ordered a census by an executive decree of 2017, and the ISEZ Statistical Office was charged with carrying it out.^[1]

Organization

The reference date was 14 October 2018, and enumeration in the ISEZ ran until 4 November. About 9,800 enumerators, most of them schoolteachers, visited households in the three cities and six districts. In Talas and Nurzhan they used tablet computers supplied through Attelkom, and elsewhere paper forms. Questionnaires were printed in Iradi, English and Russian. They asked about age, sex, marital status, nationality, native language and other languages spoken, religion, education, occupation and housing. Nationality and religion were recorded by self-declaration, and the methodology report states that the religion question offered a list of faiths without a separate "no religion" option.^[1]

ISEZ enumerators did not work beyond the Qara-Chik Demarcation Line. The IAC said that it had not been consulted, and that it would not have admitted enumerators acting under ISEZ authority. For the ATR the Statistical Office produced an estimate from:^[1]

• the 1989 census, projected forward and adjusted for the losses of the civil wars and for emigration;
• the number of tribal travel permits registered at the Gendarmerie checkpoints;
• enrollments in schools and parish registers known to the ISEZ authorities;
• household lists used in livestock and fuel trade contracts with the clans.

Preliminary results were announced in December 2018, and the final results were published in 2019, with settlement-level tables for the ISEZ districts and separate tables for the three cities.^[4]

Results

The main official results were as follows:^[1][4]

Other published results included:

• Nationality: Iradis 72 percent; Kyrgyz 7 percent; Uzbeks 5 percent; Kazakhs 3 percent; Tajiks, Uyghurs and Dungans about 1 percent combined; migrant and foreign communities 12 percent, including Russians and Americans (4 percent each), and Ukrainians, Koryo-saram, Chinese and others including Mexicans (1 percent each).
• Religion: Christians 78 percent, Muslims 18 percent and other faiths 4 percent (see Religion in Irad).
• Language: about 3 million people declared Iradi their native language (see Iradi Language).
• Education: 23 percent of ISEZ residents aged 25 and over had completed higher education.^[1]

Criticism

The tribal regions

Independent demographers estimate the ATR population at 3.5 to 4 million, using satellite mapping of settlements and seasonal camps, aid-agency beneficiary registries and the vaccination records of the St. Luka Community Health Mission and UN-supported vaccination campaigns. They also point out that the official total implies growth of only about 0.3 percent a year since 1989, a rate they consider implausible for a population with the birth rates recorded in the ISEZ and reported in the tribal regions.^[2][3] Satellite and registry studies support the higher figure, though they do not settle it, and the United Nations Mission in Irad (UNMI) and humanitarian agencies use planning figures within the independent range.^[5]

IAC leaders allege that the undercount was deliberate, intended to reduce the tribal regions' weight in any unified legislature. They also note that even the official figure gives the ATR more than two-fifths of the population, against the one-third of seats it was offered at the 2011 Bilateral Reunification Summit. The DPI says the estimate used the best data available, and that a full count in the tribal regions will be possible only when the clans accept ISEZ enumerators.^[2]

Other issues

Analysts have raised several further points:^[2][6]

• The American share. The 4 percent recorded as Americans is considered inflated by military personnel and contractors at Talas Air Base and other US installations who were registered as residents.
• Cities and districts. The published city figures, about 2.28 million together, leave about 350,000 people for the six districts out of an ISEZ total of about 2.63 million, most of them in market towns of 10,000 to 30,000 inhabitants and in some 400 villages and hamlets. The Statistical Office says that the city figures include settlements under the administration of the city governments, and demographers note that this counts suburban villages that would otherwise be classed as rural in the city totals. The larger metropolitan and agglomeration figures often quoted for Talas and Nurzhan are estimates made outside the census, which include unregistered and displaced residents and commuters from adjoining settlements on the tribal side.
• Religion. Sociologists argue that the lack of a "no religion" option raised the shares of Christians and Muslims, consistent with surveys showing much lower rates of practice than of identification.

Significance

Because the two figures differ by more than a third, statistics derived from the census vary widely with the population base used. Nominal GDP per person, for example, is about $3,980 on the official population and about $2,970 on the independent estimate.^[6] The UN Special Committee on Decolonization reports both figures in its annual working paper on Irad. The census results also underpin the ISEZ's case that its electorate represents a majority of Irad's population, a claim the IAC rejects, and any future unification referendum would depend on an agreed count. The IAC has called for a census under UN supervision. The ISEZ government has said that the next census will be held in 2028.^[7]

See also

• Demographics of Irad
• Autonomous Tribal Regions
• 2008 Unification Referendum Initiative

References

1. ^ Department of Public Information (2019). 2018 Census of Irad: Methodology and Results. Talas.
2. ^ Central Asian Demographic Review (2021). 'Counting the Tribal Regions: Reassessing the 2018 Irad Census.' Vol. 14, pp. 5–31.
3. ^ Central Asian Geopolitical Review (2021). 'Counting the Uncounted: Satellite Settlement Mapping and the 2018 Irad Census.' Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 201–226.
4. ^ ISEZ Statistical Office (2019). 2018 Census of Population: Settlements of the Districts. Talas.
5. ^ United Nations Mission in Irad (2024). Planning Zones and Humanitarian Access in the Autonomous Tribal Regions: Annual Report. Kara-Oi.
6. ^ Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Irad (2024). Irad Economic Review 2024. Talas.
7. ^ United Nations Special Committee on Decolonization (2023). Working Paper on the Non-Self-Governing Territory of Irad. New York.